International trade and globalisation - Current account of the balance of payments (3)
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1.
Explain, with examples, the main components of secondary income in a country's balance of payments. How might changes in global economic conditions affect the value of secondary income flows?
Secondary income in the balance of payments represents income earned and received from overseas investments. It's a crucial component reflecting a country's financial performance globally. The main components are:
- Compensation of Employees: This includes wages and salaries earned by a country's citizens working abroad, and the wages earned by foreign citizens working in the home country. Example: A British engineer working on a project in the USA earns wages that are recorded as a credit to the UK's secondary income.
- Investment Income: This encompasses profits, interest, dividends, and capital gains earned on overseas investments. Example: A UK company earning profits from a subsidiary in Germany records these profits as a credit. Interest earned on a US bond held by a UK investor is also included.
- Transfer Payments: These are payments made with no direct exchange of goods or services. Example: Remittances sent by UK citizens working abroad to their families in the UK are recorded as a credit. Overseas aid received by a country is also a transfer payment.
Global economic conditions significantly impact secondary income flows.
- Economic Growth: Strong global economic growth typically leads to increased business activity and investment, resulting in higher profits and therefore increased investment income for countries with overseas investments.
- Interest Rate Differentials: Changes in interest rates between countries can influence capital flows. Higher interest rates in a country can attract foreign investment, increasing interest income.
- Recessions: During recessions, businesses may reduce profits, leading to lower investment income. Reduced economic activity can also lead to job losses for citizens working abroad, reducing compensation of employees.
- Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Changes in exchange rates can affect the value of income flows. A weaker domestic currency can increase the value of income received from overseas.
2.
Suppose the UK experiences a period of strong economic growth, leading to increased foreign investment in the UK. Explain how this would affect the UK's balance of payments, specifically focusing on the secondary income account. What other accounts in the balance of payments might also be affected?
Strong economic growth in the UK would lead to an increase in foreign investment, which would have the following effects on the balance of payments:
- Secondary Income Account: The secondary income account would likely show a credit. This is because foreign investors would earn higher profits from their investments in the UK (e.g., from UK-based companies or UK government bonds). These profits would be repatriated to their home countries, increasing the UK's secondary income.
- Capital Account: The capital account would likely show a credit. Increased foreign investment directly contributes to a credit in the capital account.
- Current Account: The current account might be affected, although the link is less direct. Strong economic growth could lead to increased imports, potentially widening the current account deficit. However, if the growth is driven by increased exports, the current account could improve.
- Financial Account: The financial account would show a credit. Increased foreign investment in the UK would lead to an increase in UK assets held by foreign entities, resulting in a credit in the financial account.
In summary, strong economic growth in the UK would generally lead to a positive impact on the UK's balance of payments, particularly through increased capital inflows and higher secondary income.
3.
The following table shows the trade in services balance for three different countries in £ millions. Assume that a positive balance represents a surplus and a negative balance represents a deficit. Analyze the data and suggest possible reasons for the differences in trade in services balances between the three countries.
Country A: £25,000 | Country B: £-15,000 | Country C: £10,000 |
The table shows the trade in services balance for three countries: A has a surplus of £25,000 million, B has a deficit of £15,000 million, and C has a surplus of £10,000 million. Here's an analysis of possible reasons for these differences:
- Country A (Surplus): This country likely has a strong service sector, possibly driven by factors such as a high-income population that generates significant demand for tourism, financial services, and education. It may also be a global leader in specific service industries (e.g., financial services, software development). It could also have a relatively strong currency, making its services competitive in the global market.
- Country B (Deficit): This country may have a less developed service sector compared to A and C. It might rely heavily on importing services, such as tourism, specialized medical care, or high-tech services. A weaker currency could also contribute to the deficit, making imports more expensive. It might also lack the infrastructure or skilled workforce to compete effectively in the global service market.
- Country C (Surplus): Country C likely possesses a competitive service sector. It could be a major tourist destination, a hub for international business, or a leader in a specific service industry (e.g., financial services, IT outsourcing). It might also have a favorable exchange rate or government policies that promote service exports. It could also benefit from a skilled workforce and strong infrastructure.
It's important to note that these are just possible explanations, and the actual reasons could be a combination of these factors. Further investigation would be needed to determine the precise causes of the differences.