International trade and globalisation - Current account of the balance of payments (3)
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1.
The balance of payments (BoP) is a record of all economic transactions between a country and the rest of the world. The current account is one of the main components of the BoP. Explain, with examples, what is meant by a current account deficit and a current account surplus. Discuss two possible causes of a current account deficit.
Current Account Deficit: A current account deficit occurs when a country's value of imports exceeds its value of exports. In simpler terms, the country is spending more on goods and services from other countries than it is earning from selling its own goods and services to other countries. Example: If the UK imports £60 billion worth of goods and services but only exports £40 billion worth, it has a current account deficit of £20 billion.
Current Account Surplus: A current account surplus occurs when a country's value of exports exceeds its value of imports. This means the country is earning more from selling its goods and services to other countries than it is spending on goods and services from other countries. Example: If Germany exports €80 billion worth of goods and services but only imports €60 billion worth, it has a current account surplus of €20 billion.
Two Possible Causes of a Current Account Deficit:
- High Demand for Imports: If a country has a strong economy and consumers are eager to buy goods from other countries (e.g., due to higher incomes or consumer confidence), imports will increase. This can lead to a deficit.
- Low Competitiveness of Exports: If a country's goods and services are not competitive in the global market (e.g., due to higher production costs, lower quality, or lack of innovation), exports will be lower. This can also contribute to a deficit.
2.
Explain the main reasons why a country might experience a current account deficit. Support your answer with examples.
A current account deficit occurs when a country imports more goods, services, and capital than it exports. Several factors can contribute to this imbalance:
- High Demand for Goods and Services: If a country's economy is growing rapidly, domestic demand for goods and services increases. If domestic production cannot meet this demand, the country must import, leading to a current account deficit. Example: Rapid economic growth in China has led to significant imports of raw materials and manufactured goods.
- Strong Consumer Spending: Increased consumer spending, often fueled by rising incomes, drives up demand for imported consumer goods. Example: Increased disposable income in the UK often leads to higher imports of electronics, clothing, and food.
- High Levels of Government Spending: Increased government spending on infrastructure, defense, or social programs can lead to higher imports of equipment and materials. Example: A country undertaking a large infrastructure project will likely import machinery and materials.
- Weak Domestic Production: If a country's domestic industries are uncompetitive (e.g., due to high costs, outdated technology), it will be forced to import goods that could otherwise be produced domestically. Example: A country with a struggling manufacturing sector may rely heavily on imports of manufactured goods.
- Large Capital Outflows: If investors are more interested in investing in other countries (e.g., higher returns elsewhere), capital will flow out of the country, increasing the demand for foreign currency and, consequently, the value of imports. Example: Capital flight from a country experiencing political instability can lead to a current account deficit.
These factors often interact with each other, creating a complex picture of a country's current account position.
3.
Explain how changes in exchange rates can affect a country's current account. Use examples to illustrate your answer.
Exchange rates play a crucial role in determining a country's current account balance. Changes in exchange rates can impact both exports and imports, thereby affecting the current account. There are two main scenarios to consider:
- Currency Appreciation: When a country's currency appreciates (becomes more valuable), its exports become more expensive for foreign buyers and its imports become cheaper for domestic consumers. Effect on Current Account: This typically leads to a deterioration of the current account (a deficit worsens, or a surplus shrinks). Fewer exports and more imports result. Example: If the British pound appreciates against the US dollar, UK exports to the US become more expensive, potentially reducing UK exports and increasing US imports of UK goods.
- Currency Depreciation: When a country's currency depreciates (becomes less valuable), its exports become cheaper for foreign buyers and its imports become more expensive for domestic consumers. Effect on Current Account: This typically leads to an improvement of the current account (a deficit improves, or a surplus grows). More exports and fewer imports result. Example: If the Japanese yen depreciates against the Euro, Japanese exports to the Eurozone become cheaper, potentially increasing Japanese exports and reducing Eurozone imports of Japanese goods.
However, the magnitude of the impact depends on the price elasticity of demand for exports and imports. If demand is relatively inelastic (not very responsive to price changes), the impact on the current account may be smaller.